Karlsson is a major factor

Golf Betting Lines

08/07/2008 - Bloomfield Hills Township, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Who is the only player to register a top-10 finish in each of the season's first three major championship?

That would be the tall Swede, Robert Karlsson.

He tied for eighth at the Masters, shared fourth at the U.S. Open at Torrey Pines and last month, Karlsson used a final-round 69 to get into a tie for seventh at the British Open Championship.

Karlsson shot a two-under 68 on Thursday and shares the early lead at the PGA Championship.

So it must have been all of the success he's accumulated all year that propelled him to the top of the leaderboard, correct? That had to be the thought process, right?

"To forget about those three top eights, that's the most important thing," he said.

What?

"This has nothing to do with the other three," Karlsson explained. "If you look at the other three, obviously I'm really, really ecstatic about the way I played at the U.S. Open and Masters, and the British Open just sort of happened when the weather came up on the last day. I don't think I've ever been so good in the lounge at the airport before."

Fair enough.

Karlsson is 22nd in the world rankings and played on the last European Ryder Cup team. He owns seven victories on the European Tour, and although he might not be a household name in the U.S., Karlsson's a big-time player in the world of golf.

The 6-foot-4 Swede has not missed a cut anywhere in the world this year. He hasn't finished outside the top 20 since a tie for 30th at the WGC-CA Championship in mid-March.

Karlsson is almost assured to be part of Nick Faldo's Ryder Cup team next month and now, at Oakland Hills, Karlsson can earn major championship win No. 1.

Karlsson did not get off to the kind of start one expects from a leader. He double-bogeyed the first, but then rattled off three consecutive birdies from the second. He added birdies at six and eight and found himself three-under par.

When Karlsson birdied No. 11, he was the only competitor at four-under par. Unfortunately, an errant lob-wedge at 14 and a couple of trips to bunkers at 15 both led to bogeys.

He parred out to get in at minus-two.

While Karlsson's in the hunt for his first major, it's still early. Just don't ask him to think too highly of his 2008 major year.

"Well, Tiger's not playing all of them, is he?"

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.